Summary of "MASON Hierarchies"


C. Cioffi-Revilla, W. Honeychurch, J.D. Rogers (2013)



CW Dillon

for Conflict Models, CSS739

Fall 2014

George Mason University

A long-range agent model of power, conflict and environment in Inner Asia

  • Builds on a previous model simulating households within the (real) environment in Inner Asia
    • 100 years
    • large area (Kazakstan to Manchuria)
  • Implements the Canonical Theory for tribal-level power relationships (including conflict)
  • Supports a competing theory about evolution of social complexity in the Steppe

Canonical Theory

Canonical Theory

Model Ontology

  • Natural landscape:
    • biophysical systems; exlusisively Nature
    • no humans or their artifacts
  • Humans and kin-based groups:
    • households with clan membership
    • indviduals with values, social norms; produce behavior
  • Artificial systems:
    • camps, tribes, federations
    • emergent phenomena & complex adaptive systems
    • comprises the built environment

Households Model

Households Model

C. Cioffi-Revilla, J.D. Rogers, M. Latek (2010) [1]

Hierarchies Model

Hierarchies Model

C. Cioffi-Revilla, W. Honeychurch, J.D. Rogers (2013) [2]

Key Differences with Previous Modules

  • Much more involved than statistical, DM, games, or dynamical models
    • Time (even to replicate)
    • Number of parameters
  • Includes or incorporates many of the prior techniques
    • Validation
    • Behavior

Model Features

  • Military capacity
  • Economy size (power)
  • Military burden

Military Capacity

  • Tribes have limit on span of control, which impacts military effectiveness

Military Effectiveness

Economic Power

  • Tribes need to maintain a flow of wealth

Economy

Military Burden

  • Tribes redistribute wealth to pay for military contributions

Wealth Redistribution

Behavior and Decision-making

  • Tribes have a tension to secure wealth
    • by Expansion
    • by Rebellion
    • by Disintigration (failure)

Tension

Tribal Decisions

Decision Calculus

Validation

  • Distribution of emergent phenomena metrics
  • Time-series and event analysis

Emergent Phenomena

  • coalition/confederation size
  • tension across tribes; "global"
  • effective coalition power
  • coalition duration

Time-series

  • Territorial size of confederations over time
  • Membership size of coaltions over time
  • Tension of coalition members over time
  • Jensen-Shannon Divergence
    • measures similarity between two probability distributions

Abrupt Ending